If 2008 was a relatively difficult year for Roger Federer, he may find life no easier at Australian Open 2009, the first Grand Slam championship of the year.
Last year, at this time, he was still recovering from the after-effects of glandular fever. He narrowly escaped elimination in a long, draining third-round match with Serbia’s Janko Tipsarevic, and lost in the semi-finals to another Serbian, Novak Djokovic, who went on to win the title.
It was a traumatic start to the year for the popular Swiss. Worse shocks were to follow, what with his French Open thrashing by Rafael Nadal, and the loss of his Wimbledon title and his No.1 ranking to the same player.
This year, Federer, winner of the Australian title in 2004, 2006 and 2007 and now seeded second behind Nadal, embarks on another rocky road at Melbourne Park.
He should beat Italian Andreas Seppi in the first round, and possibly the 41st-ranked Spaniard, Carlos Moya, in the second round. But waiting for him in the third round could be Marat Safin, the No. 26 seed.
It was the big Muscovite who stopped Federer at the 2005 Open, prevailing 9-7 in the fifth set of a torrid semi-final. Safin subsequently won the title by beating Australia’s Lleyton Hewitt in the final. Safin atoned for his defeat in the 2002 final, when he carelessly underestimated his Swedish opponent Thomas Johansson, and the 2004 final, when Federer beat him.
Safin has played many other tight matches with Federer. He seems more relaxed these days, perhaps because he plans to retire at the end of the year, and his carefree attitude may make him an even greater threat this time around.
Should Federer win this testing challenge, he would probably face fellow Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka, seeded 15th, or the 20th-seeded Tomas Berdych, the young Czech who ousted him from the Athens Olympics in 2004.
Other brilliant young players in Federer’s quarter are Argentina’s eighth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro and Croatia’s 19th-seeded Marin Cilic, the champion recently at Chennai.
His semi-final opponent may be either Djokovic, who has a comparatively easy draw up to the quarter-finals, or old foes Andy Roddick or David Nalbandian.
In the top half of the draw, Nadal will be trying to become the first Spaniard ever to capture the Australian crown. His draw looks easier than Federer’s, though Germany’s Tommy Haas, a three-time semi-finalist, could pose an early threat.
Another possible obstacle is the swashbuckling Fernando Gonzalez, who made the final in 2007 after beating Hewitt and Nadal, among others, and then lost to Federer. The Chilean takes plenty of risks, however, and hasn’t shown the same confidence in recent months as he did two years ago.
Nadal’s probable quarter-final opponent is sixth-seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon, who produced some sizzling form in the latter part of 2008.
An equal favourite with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic is the fast-improving Andy Murray. The rangy Scot seems unaffected by the pressure of public expectations as he battles to become Britain’s first Grand Slam champion since Fred Perry won the Wimbledon and US crowns in 1936.
Murray faces strong opposition from the likes of 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who beat him in the first round in Melbourne last year), American stalwart James Blake, and recent Brisbane finalists Radek Stepanek of the Czech Republic and Fernando Verdasco of Spain.
He is expected to meet Nadal in a semi-final, with the winner facing either Federer or Djokovic in a fortnight. Murray now has an impressive head-to-head record against all except Nadal, and has beaten Federer in five of their seven meetings, including the last three in succession.
Alan Trengove has covered around 130 Grand Slam tournaments as a reporter and feature writer, and covered his first Australian championships in 1953
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